Quantification and evaluation of water requirements of oil palm cultivation for different climate change scenarios in the Central Pacific of Costa Rica using APSIM
Date
2023Author
Watson-Hernández, Fernando
Serrano-Núñez, Valeria
Gómez-Calderón, Natalia
Pereira da Silva, Rouverson
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Climate change is a variation in the normal behavior of the climate. These variations
and their effects will be seen in the coming years, the most imminent being anomalous fluctuations
in atmospheric temperature and precipitation. This scenario is counterproductive for agricultural
production. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on oil palm production for conditions
in the Central Pacific of Costa Rica, in three simulation scenarios: the baseline between the years 2000
and 2019, a first climate change scenario from 2040 to 2059 (CCS1), and a second one from 2080 to
2099 (CCS2), using the modeling framework APSIM, and the necessary water requirements were
established as an adaptive measure for the crop with the irrigation module. A decrease in annual
precipitation of 5.55% and 7.86% and an increase in the average temperature of 1.73 C and 3.31 C
were identified, generating a decrease in production yields of 7.86% and 37.86%, concerning the
Baseline, in CCS1 and CCS2, respectively. Irrigation made it possible to adapt the available water
conditions in the soil to maintain the baseline yields of the oil palm crop for the proposed climate
change scenarios.
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