Propuesta de una herramienta de valoración por los métodos de descuento de flujos de efectivo y valoración relativa. Caso Banco Bac San José, S.A.

Abstract

The dynamism seen in the Costa Rican baking sector in terms of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals in the last decade coupled with the increased presence of global banks in Costa Rica, which could lead to more deals, motivated this research project. The research is about a proposal of a valuation model involving the valuation methods of discounted cash flows and relative valuation, which was validated with the case of Banco Bac José, S.A. (Bac San José). This model is intended to be used in the event of a M&A deal. It is based on Bac San José´s audited financial statements as well as data on reference interest rates. The data was analyzed through vertical and horizontal analysis aiming to identify historical associations and trends that facilitate the forecast of Bac San José´s future cash flows and profits which are required for the valuation methods. The forecasts also reflect the analysis of Bac San José´s current and future strategy as well as the analysis of expectations of future interest rates in colones and dollars- The valuation methods suggested different values for Bac San José although similar. The discounted cash flows suggested a value of nearly USD1.550 million while the relative valuation suggested a value of around USD1.480 million, with a difference close to USD70 million. Nevertheless, the results of both methods should be considered and therefore in the event of a real M&A deal the price of Bac San José should be somewhere between USD1.480 million and USD1.550 million.